South Florida vs. SMU; preview & prediction
TAMPA, Fla. (Nov. 11, 2022) – South Florida (1-7, 0-4 AAC) hosts Southern Methodist (4-4, 2-2 AAC) in an American Athletic Conference matchup Saturday at Raymond James Stadium at 12 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
The game marks just the second time the Bulls have played in their home stadium in 63-days.
Special Teams Coordinator Daniel Da Prato makes his debut as the Bulls interim head coach on Saturday. Da Prato took the reins of the USF football program on Sunday when Jeff Scott left the role as head coach.
“I can rest my head on the pillow knowing that I have poured every ounce of myself into this program,” Da Prato said in his first press conference as interim head coach. “It is about these young men and the student-athlete experience. I got into coaching 20 years ago to help young men, and it is about them.”
This is the seventh meeting between USF and SMU, with the series tied 3-3. The Mustangs have won the last two meetings, including a 41-17 victory in 2021 and a 48-21 win in Tampa in 2019.
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SMU OFFENSE
The Mustangs are coming off a record-setting 77-63 win over Houston at home Saturday. SMU set a program record and tied the AAC record for points in the first half (56), set the AAC record for most combined points in a game and set the NCAA FBS record for combined points in regulation.
SMU has a potent passing attack that ranks fifth nationally and first in the AAC. Quarterback Tanner Mordecai averages 312.5 passing yards per game which ranks first in the AAC and eighth nationally. Mordecai also ranks fourth in the AAC in passing yards (2,500), second in passing touchdowns (25).
Rashee Rice is Mordecai’s favorite target. The senior wide receiver leads the NCAA in receiving yards (1068), receiving yards per game (118.7) and is fifth nationally in receptions per game (7.9). Rice is on track to break Emanuel Sander's 2009 SMU record of most receiving yards in a season (1339). Rice has also found the end zone a few times this season. His eight receiving touchdowns is second most in The American.
The SMU run game is opposite of their pass game. Five players split time in the backfield, but junior Velton Gardner leads the bunch with 344 yards, averaging 5.5 a carry. However, in the end zone, the Mustangs rely more on senior Tyler Lavine, who leads the team with six rushing touchdowns.
SMU DEFENSE
Senior Jimmy Phillips Jr. is the captain of this defense, leading the team with 51 total tackles and tying cornerback Ar’mani Johnson with four passes defended. However, like the Bulls, the Mustangs struggle on the defensive side of the ball.
This game is a matchup of the two worst defenses in the AAC. SMU ranks tenth in the conference in total defense (453.2 yards per game) and USF is No. 11 (503.1 yards per game). The Mustangs allow 33.7 points per game compared to 39.9 points per game allowed by the Bulls defense.
The Mustangs and Navy are tied for the fifth most sacks in the AAC (22) and have seven interceptions through nine games.
This SMU defense just isn’t close to good. There are issues in all aspects of the field, from tackling to pass rush. They look all too familiar to the Bulls defensively.
SHEWEY’S SUMMARY
Both teams have struggling defenses. The key to victory for the Bulls is to pressure the quarterback and lock down Rice. Whether they double cover him or use an extra safety, they must keep him contained.
A problem the Bulls have had all season is finding a way to get their weapons involved, such as Xavier Weaver, Jimmy Horn Jr., and Michel Dukes. They have the tools they need; they just aren't working with them.
The Bulls are coming off a brutal loss and have transitioned to an interim head coach and interim defensive coordinator. Saturday we will see if see if Da Prato and Sims can inspire the players to improved performance.
With all the hope I have, I just do not see the Bulls coming away with a victory. They have faced too many distractions this week, and with the Mustangs coming off a heater last week, I believe their momentum will carry over. I predict SMU will win 52-42.