What To Watch For: USF At UCF
South Florida will carry a five-game win streak to Orlando Wednesday when it visits Central Florida, the game is also the next installment in the War on I-4.
USF outlasted East Carolina 72-68 in overtime on Sunday in its second consecutive game without star freshman Alexis Yetna who is rehabbing a hamstring injury. The forward will be a game time decision Wednesday night. The redshirt freshman ranks 24th nationally with a conference-leading 9.8 rebounds per game and has totaled 10 double-doubles this season.
UCF is coming off a 71-65 victory at Southern Methodist on Sunday.
RunningTheBulls.com has your quick facts and what to watch for against UCF:
Quick Facts
Matchup: USF (17-6, 7-4) at UCF (17-5, 7-3)
Date: Wednesday, Feb. 13
Time: 7 p.m. EST
Location: Orlando, Florida | CFE Arena
Watch: ESPNews (John Brickley, Mark Adams)
Radio: AM 820 | USF Bulls Unlimited (Jim Lighthall)
History: This will be the 36th meeting between the two programs. The Bulls have a 22-15 advantage in the series, but have dropped six games in a row, and have not defeated the Knights since March 3, 2015.
The Opponent: The Knights are a veteran group and may be the third best team (Houston and Cincinnati) that USF will face all season. It is a mature team with physical guards and good depth. You must be able to guard B.J. Taylor and Aubrey Dawkins or you have no chance to win.
The Knights are led by senior point guard Taylor who has led UCF in scoring each of his four seasons. Taylor, who was named the Preseason Player of the Year and Preseason First Team All-Conference in The American, is a terrific floor general and can make shots. Taylor is excellent in transition and isolations plus is very difficult to contain in ball screen action. He is also one of the best in The American at getting to the free throw line.
Dawkins, a redshirt junior, is a high IQ wing who is a deadly scorer off of ball screens and dribble hand-offs. He uses off-ball screens very well and the USF must close out on him with a hand high or he’ll splash jump shots all night.
Senior center Tacko Fall, who missed both War on I-4 games last season, is healthy and once again ranked in the top-three in two-point field goal percentage at 76.2 percent. USF needs to be physical with Fall, crowd him and make him catch passes outside of the paint. The Bulls can’t just let him run the floor and set up deep in the paint unimpeded.
Fall, along with 6-foot-9, 245 pound Chad Brown and 6-foot-11, 240 pound Collin Smith give UCF great size up front. Brown is an athletic bruiser, while Smith is long, athletic and skilled. We love Smith’s feel for the game in the low post. USF must put a body on both Brown and Smith when shots go up as they are excellent rebounders. Brown prefers to set up on the left block where his go-to move is a reverse pivot then get into the lane for a jump hook.
Offensively UCF runs a ton of set plays with a variety of screens and hand-off actions and does a very good job taking care of the ball averaging just 11.7 turnovers per game.
Defensively UCF is excellent. They play man 81.2 percent of the time and hold teams to 38.9 percent shooting. When they’re in one of their zones they hold opponents to 37.7 percent shooting. They use a 1-3-1 and a 2-3 zone. Watch for the 1-3-1 to occasionally change to a 2-3 zone after the first or second pass. The UCF press defense is below average allowing teams to shoot 51.9 percent.
Prediction
USF 63 UCF 69
USF must win the rebound battle, take care of the ball, be patient with, and execute, its zone offense. USF has to be able to guard Taylor and Dawkins off of screens or it is going to be a long night for the Bulls. We expect Mayan Kiir to start at power forward but we also expect Yetna to play. How much and how effectively is the question. On the road, without a healthy Yetna may be too much for USF to overcome.