USF football begins conference play against the SMU Mustangs in week four of the 2019 season. The game at Raymond James Stadium will be the first time the two conference foes have met since 2016 in Dallas.
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The University of South Florida Bulls will host the Southern Methodist University Mustangs on September 28th at a time still to be determined. This will mark the fifth meeting between the two American Athletic Conference teams, a series that the Bulls lead, 3-1. The sole win by the Mustangs was in the first game of the series, a 16-6 victory back in 2013. USF has won three-in-a-row since, winning 35-27 in their last tilt in 2016.
SMU has struggled in recent years. Last season, they finished with a 5-6, 4-4 record. Over the past six seasons, they had a record of just 25-47.
The Mustangs are making moves to improve, however. Like the Bulls, they are fundraising to build an indoor practice facility, having raised @22.5 million of their $27 million goal. At the end of 2017, they brought in a new head coach, Sonny Dykes. Prior to coaching at SMU, he was 22-15 as a head coach at Louisiana Tech (2010-2012) and 19-30 at Cal Berkeley.
Offense
SMU has had some significant changes on offense in the offseason. Ben Hicks, who had started at quarterback for the past three seasons for the Mustangs, has left the program, transferring to Arkansas as a graduate transfer. Hicks had set program records for passing yards (9,081) total offense (8,977), touchdowns (74) and completions (718). He projects to be a starter at Arkansas.
The Mustangs will turn to Texas graduate transfer, Shane Buechele to replace Hicks’ 215 yards per game and 19 touchdowns in 2018. Buechele played in 23 games in three years at Texas, starting 12 games his freshman season. As a freshman in 2016, he passed for nearly 3,000 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Shoulder and ankle injuries, combined with a concussion during his sophomore season caused Buechele to miss games, eventually losing the starting role to Sam Ehlinger. Hicks and Ehlinger had very similar productivity in their respective systems, which suggests that the change should be a wash. SMU ranked 27th in passing, averaging 271 yards per game in 2018.
Buechele is joined by receivers James Proche and Reggie Roberson Jr. on the Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award Watch List. This award is given to the top offensive player with direct ties to the state of Texas. Proche led the team in receiving yards (1,199) and touchdowns (12) in 2018. With just over half as many targets, Roberson came in the second most productive receiver, racking up 802 yards with six touchdowns. Proche and Roberson are also on the Biletnikoff Award Watch List for outstanding wide receivers. Proche is the sole representative for SMU on the Paul Hornung Watch List, which honors versatile offensive players.
The Mustangs leaned heavily on the pass last season. The top rusher for the team, Braeden West, carried the ball for just over 49 yards per game, with six touchdowns all season. Also with six touchdowns, was Ke’Mon Freeman, who averaged just 34 yards per game. Freeman will be the top candidate to replace West, who was a senior last year. Xaiver Jones should be in the mix, as well. Jones had 311 rushing yards last season, averaging 31 yards per game. The Mustang running game averaged 116 yards per game, ranking 119th in the nation.
As a team, the SMU offense ranked 54th in the nation, averaging 30 points per game last season. They ranked 63rd in total touchdowns with 47.
Defense
While the offense put up respectable numbers in 2018, the defense allowed the same. The Mustangs ranked 110 in total defense, allowing 35 points per game. They were 98th against the run (196) and 69th against the pass (233 ypg).
One area they did well in was turnovers. Their low number of offensive turnovers combined with their defense picking up 11 fumbles and pulling in 11 interceptions gave SMU the 23rd best turnover margin in the country.
Senior linebacker, Richard Moore, is back to lead the team in tackles. He finished last year with 92, including 13.5 tackles for loss, the second best total on the team, and five sacks, a team best. Also returning for the Mustangs are numbers three and four in tackles, Rodney Clemons and Patrick Nelson. Both defensive backs, Clemons and Nelson had 72 and 65 total tackles, respectively.
The Mustangs picked up a key transfer in linebacker, Richard McBryde. McBryde was a consensus four star recruit coming out of high school who played two years at Auburn. He sat out due to injury in 2018 and opted to transfer to SMU for his final two years of eligibility. His presence should boost the SMU defense on the outside.
Overall, the Mustangs ranked 90th in total defense, allowing 429 yards of offense per game in 2018.
Expectations
SMU’s ability to replace one high caliber quarterback with another says something about this team. They are literally reloading, replacing a departing four star quarterback with another. For a program in the conference they are in, that’s no small feat. Dykes will be more comfortable in his role in year two. Summed up, they look like they will be improved, but where they’re coming from is a bad place.
Summary
There are no odds posted for this game as yet, but USF is likely to be the favorite.ESPN’s FPI computer calculations predict a 68.9% chance of a Bulls’ victory.The game time is officially TBA / TBD on the teams’ sites, but other sources are suggesting this is noon kickoff.This, of course, is subject to change based on television schedules.
