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The University of South Florida Bulls will head on I-4 East for the final football game of their 2019 season against their conference rivals, the University of Central Florida Knights. This game marks the tenth football meeting between the geographical neighbors, with the Bulls holding a 6-4 edge in the all-time series. The Knights have won two-in-a-row against the Bulls, with the first of that pairing being the 2017 matchup that many considered the best college football game of that year.
The Bulls have missed bowl eligibility for the first time since 2014. Their 4-7 (2-5) record marks just the sixth losing season since joining the FBS ranks in 2001.
UCF will go to a bowl game, but their 8-3 (5-2) record shows vulnerability that did not exist when the Knights beat the Bulls 38-10 in Tampa last season. All three of their losses, this season, came in road games, but they will play host to USF on Saturday.
USF Offense
To say that the Bulls have struggled on offense would be a big understatement. They rank 111th in total offense (338 ypg) and 107th in scoring offense (22 ypg). The root of many of the problems on offense has been the offensive line, which has allowed quarterbacks to be sacked 43 times, the 126th highest total in all of college football. Those sacks have led to injuries to season starter, Blake Barnett, and redshirt freshman, Jordan McCloud. McCloud has been calling the plays since Barnett’s departure, despite carrying injuries of his own.
McCloud has passed for 1,313 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. The Bulls rank 113th in passing offense (175 ypg).
Senior tight end, Mitchell Wilcox, remains the top receiver on the team in the final game of his career. He has 334 receiving yards with five touchdowns. Randall St. Felix has come on strong in recent games, totaling 261 receiving yards and two touchdowns, 167 of which came in their last four games.
The Bulls are a little better running the ball. Senior running back, Jordan Cronkrite, leads the team in rushing, with 686 yards and four touchdowns. He is not expected to play in the game against UCF, being replaced by freshman, Kelley Joiner. Joiner has run for 341 yards, most of which came in relief of Cronkrite after his injury.
UCF Defense
The Knights have been strong on defense, ranking 38th in total defense (354 ypg) and 46th in scoring defense (24 ppg).
Their ability to get into the backfield has been a challenge for their opponents this season. UCF leads the nation in tackles for loss (104) and are 31st in sacks (29). Defensive lineman, Kenny Turnier, leads the team with 13 tackles for loss, followed by Nate Evans (11.5) and Eric Mitchel (9.5). Brendon Hayes is the sack leader, with 6.5.
Evans leads the team in total tackles with 92, which ties him for 45th, individually, in the nation.
The Knights rank 55th against the run (146 ypg) and 44th against the pass (208 ypg). Despite doing well at containing opponents’ passing, they have just nine interceptions on the season and rank 97th in turnovers gained (13).
UCF’s opponents converted on third down less than 28% of the time, the 5th best total, overall. For perspective, the Bull have only converted on third down 40% of the time.
UCF Offense
As respectable as the Knights have been on defense, their offense is at a different level. They rank 6th in scoring (44 ppg) and 4th in total offense (536 ypg).
After taking over for Brandon Wimbush early in the season, Dillon Gabriel has accumulated 3,123 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He has completed nearly 60% of his passes and averaging 284 passing yards per game. Under Gabriel, the offense ranks 8th in passing (321 ypg).
The #24 rushing offense consists of a committee-type approach, with a rotation of Otis Anderson (658 yards), Bentavious Thompson (524 yards), and Adrian Killins Jr. (514 yards). Thompson leads the group in scoring with eight touchdowns, followed by Killins with six and Anderson with five.
No review of the UCF offense could omit the other Gabriel, junior receiver, Gabriel Davis. Davis has 1,135 receiving yards and ten touchdowns on the season. Tre Nixon has also been big for the Knights, catching passes for 722 yards and five touchdowns. Also worth mention has been Marlon Williams, who has five touchdowns on passes totaling 549 yards.
The Knights convert on third down less than 39% of the time and score less than 19% from the red zone.
USF Defense
Throughout the second half of what has been a challenging season, the Bulls’ defense has been the string holding things together. They rank 59th in total defense (385 ypg) and 72nd in scoring defense (29 ppg).
Like the Knights, the Bulls excel in getting into the backfield, ranking 3rd, nationally, in tackles for loss (96). Also like the Knights, they haven’t translated all of that backfield action into a bunch of sacks, ranking 36th with 28 sacks. Linebacker, Dwayne Boyles, leads the team in tackles for loss (12.5), followed by linemen, Kirk Livingstone (10) and Greg Reaves (9). That trio also has three sacks apiece, trailing team leader and linebacker, Antonio Grier, who has four.
Boyles leads the team in total tackles, as well (65). Linebacker, Patrick Macon (67), and defensive back, Devin Studstill (65), round out the top three.
Turnovers have been key for the Bulls’ defense this season, contributing to their 12th ranked passing defense (179 ypg). Their 12 interceptions on the season rank them 18th, while their total turnovers (24) is the third best total in the country.
USF struggles to stop the run, a problem they have had for the second straight season. They rank 116th against the run, allowing 206 yards per game.
On third down, the USF defense allows a conversion 43% of the time (114th).
Expectations
UCF will score points. Their offense is a well-oiled machine with a proven ability to score a lot of points that goes back several season. They like to throw the ball, though, and USF’s defensive secondary will love that. Expect the Bulls to get two or three picks in this one. However, as was the case in the last game, do not expect the USF offense to convert on those turnovers. Their coaching staff has a low-risk philosophy which treats turnovers as free possessions instead of realizing that they are simply the next possession. As much as the folks on Fowler would like to believe, this will not be a 2017-style game of bitter rivalry and beautiful football. The Knights aren’t who they were in 2017, either, but they should not be overwhelmed by what the Bulls are, today.
Summary
UCF is a nearly 24 point favorite at home and ESPN’s Football Power Index computers predict a 93% chance of a Knights’ victory. Kickoff is 8 PM EST on ESPN.
