USF football welcomes the SMU Mustangs to the Raymond James Stadium on Saturday.

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The University of South Florida Bulls are back in action after an off week to host the Southern Methodist University Mustangs on Saturday and begin conference play. This game will be fourth meeting between these two teams, with the first game of the series coming back in 2013. The Bulls hold a 3-1 lead in that series.

This year’s SMU team is different, however, benefiting from contribution from several transfers. The Mustangs are riding high on their 4-0 start, the best in 35 years, and last week’s win over #25 TCU. SMU is receiving votes in both polls, effectively about a 28 or 29 ranking.

The Bulls are different, also, but not in a good way. The home team has struggled early in a blowout-shutout at the hands of Wisconsin and a game they should have won at Georgia Tech. They seemed to find their stride in their first win of the season against South Carolina State, but the FCS foe is not the best measuring stick.

USF Offense

The USF offense has shaken things up after their slow start to the season, replacing senior quarterback transfer, Blake Barnett, with redshirt freshman and Tampa native, Jordan McCloud. McCloud played a relief role against Georgia Tech, helping score their only touchdown in the game. It was good enough to get him the start against SCSU, and he made good of the opportunity. He passed for 217 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, while also running for 56 yards and two more scores. McCloud will get the nod against SMU.

Aside from McCloud, the running game has been nearly non-existent, thus far into the season. Jordan Cronkrite, who rushed for more than 1,100 yards last season, has just 64 yards through three games. He did miss substantial time during the SCSU game due to an injury, but it was relatively minor in nature and he should be good to go on Saturday. Freshman running back, Kelley Joiner Jr. came in to relieve Cronkrite, but was relatively limited. He rushed for 64 yards on 13 carries, but 51 came on one big play. Despite starting just one game, McCloud leads the team in rushing.

The receiving corps is currently led by the speedy, running-back-turned-receiver, Johnny Ford. Ford has actually played more of a hybrid position, getting snaps at both slot receiver and running back. He has 123 yards on eight catches with two touchdowns. Trailing Ford in yards, but with just as many touchdowns, is senior tight end, Mitchell Wilcox. Wilcox has 101 yards on six receptions. Randall St. Felix and Eddie McDoom haven’t made a lot of noise, yet, but they’re both poised to have big seasons, once the new offense has worked out its kinks.

The Bulls rank 107th in scoring offense (22 p.p.g.), 110th in passing offense (180 y.p.g.), and 111th in rushing offense (112 y.p.g.). At 124th in total offense, there are only six teams who average less than their 292 yards per game.

SMU Defense

The Mustang defense ranks 65th in total defense, allowing 369 yards per game. Against the run, they allow 139 yards per game, the 57th best average in the country. Against TCU, however, they allowed nearly twice that, 236 yards. Their average is pulled down in part due their very stingy, 17 yards allowed against Texas State. That game was a blowout, though, and Texas State, playing from behind, had fewer running opportunities.

Playing a role in stopping the run is senior linebacker, Patrick Nelson. With 5 ½ sacks, he leads his team and is tied for fourth in the country. His 27 tackles leads the team and he ranks second on the team for tackles for loss (5.5).

Fellow linebackers, Delano Robinson and Richard McBryde, are third and fourth, respectively, with 21 and 20 total tackles.

Leading Nelson in tackles for loss is senior lineman, Delontae Scott. Scott has 7.5 tackles for loss for 36 lost yards. The defense has been amazingly consistent, with exactly seven tackles for loss in each of their four games.

Another name to listen for is Brandon Stephens, who is tied for eighth, nationally, for passes defended (6).

Allowing 28 points per game, the Mustang defense ranks 80th in the nation. They are 72nd against the pass, allowing 230 yards per game.

SMU Offense

The Mustangs shine on offense. Led by junior transfer quarterback, Shane Buechele, they rank 16th in scoring offense (44 p.p.g.) and 17th in total offense (514 y.p.g.). Buechele, who played under USF head coach, Charlie Strong at Texas and was recruited by USF’s Brian Jean-Mary, has passed for nearly 1,200 yards through four games. He has seven touchdowns and four interceptions and a completion percentage north of 66%. It would be easy to put that yardage number down due to their lack of a challenging schedule, but he passed for 288 yards and two touchdowns against TCU.

Buechele’s favorite targets have been Reggie Roberson Jr. and James Proche. Roberson has a big edge in yards (464-280), but has done so on 2 less attempts (25-27). Roberson ranks 5th in the nation in total yardage for a receiver.

Like USF, they have a tight end who is active in the passing game. Kylen Granson, who has just 12 catches on the season, has 220 receiving yards.

The Mustangs can run, too. Their stable of running backs is led by Xavier Jones, who has carried the ball 73 yards for 370 yards and eight touchdowns. Jones gets relief from Ke’Mon Freeman, who has 214 yards on 58 carries, with two touchdowns. Buechele has rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown this season, and is ranked #20 in the country for total offense by an individual.

SMU ranks 33rd in rushing offense (217 y.p.g.) and 26th in passing offense (297 y.p.g.).

USF Defense

Through three games, the Bulls have lots of open questions about their defense. After giving up 49 points to Wisconsin in their first game, their next two opponents managed just two apiece. Arguably, that is more a measure of the offenses they faced more than what would be a huge improvement on defense.

They have also found some answers. One of those answers is turnovers. Even though they’ve played just three games, they are tied with Alabama and Wisconsin in turnover margin (2). Seven of their 11 turnovers gained have been fumbles gained. Their six forced fumbles ranks the team ninth in the nation and seven fumbles recovered ties them for #1. K.J. Sails has two of those fumble recoveries. He also has one interception, leading the team in turnovers.

Another big answer in the position with the biggest questions after Nico Sawtelle was hurt last season, and again early this season, has been middle linebacker, Patrick Macon. Macon leads the team in tackles (21), tackles for loss (5), and is tied for first with one sack.

Devin Studstill and Greg Reaves are tied for second on the team in tackles with 16. Likewise, Kirk Livingstone and Kevin Kegler are tied for second behind Macon in tackles for loss with 3.5.

The Bulls are currently ranked 71st in scoring defense (26 p.p.g.) and 55th in total defense (357 y.p.g.). They’re 83rd against the run (170 y.p.g.) and a respectable 29th against the pass (187 y.p.g.).

Expectations

The Mustang Air Raid Offense will be tough to stop. However, they throw the ball a lot and USF’s secondary has the ability to take some of those passes away. Expect SMU to score a handful of times, but to see improvements on both sides of the ball for USF. SMU looks further along, at this point, and will probably cover the spread on the road.

Summary

SMU is a 7.5 point favorite as a visiting team. ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts a 67% chance of a Mustang victory. Kickoff is set for 4 PM EDT on Saturday afternoon with television coverage provided by ESPNU.