The University of South Florida will celebrate homecoming this Saturday by hosting #19/20 University of Houston Cougars. The 7-1 (5-0) Cougars’ only loss came at the hands of Texas Tech in the season opener. They broke into the top 25 this week after beating #19 SMU, last week. Houston is 5-2 in the all-time series with the Bulls, winning every game since they have been conference peers. The 2-6 (1-3) Bulls are hoping to celebrate their 25th season homecoming with an upset win over the Cougars.
USF Offense
The Bulls’ offense is improving, but still remains in the bottom third of the FBS (#95) in total offense and scoring offense (106th). Starting quarterback, Timmy McClain, has missed the past game and a half due to injuries. He has passed for right at 1,000 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Katravis Marsh started last game in relief of McClain, passing for 192 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions in the loss against ECU. Marsh has 231 passing yards this season. Both quarterbacks have supplanted season starter, Cade Fortin, on the depth chart.
Any shortcomings in the passing game are not due to a shortage of talent in the receiving corps. Xavier Weaver leads the team with catches for 471 yards and two touchdowns, but Jimmy Horn Jr. has been getting looks in recent games and is second on the team with 183 yards. Omarion Dollison is third in catches, but fourth in yards (136). Demarcus Gregory is the only other receiver with a touchdown. He’s third on the team in receiving yards (147).
The run game is by committee, featuring Kelley Joiner and Brian Battie with the speed and Jaren Mangham with the power. Mangham leads the team in rushing yards (483) and is fifth in the nation in rushing touchdowns (13). He’s tied for #16 in total scoring, nationally. Joiner has rushed for 338 yards and one touchdown, while Battie has 271 rushing yards. Battie also has a kick return for a touchdown from the Tulsa game. Joiner rushed for 103 yards in the loss to ECU. The Bulls’ rushing offense is up to #44 in the nation after running up 620 yards in their past two games.
Houston Defense
The Cougars will bring the 4th best sacking defense in the country (31) to town on Saturday. In total, 13 different Houston players have registered at least one sack, and five players have more than three. Linemen, D’Anthony Jones, Logan Hall, and David Anenih each have four sacks. Fellow linemen, Atlas Bell and Latrell Bankston have 3.5 apiece. There are 22 cougars who have logged a tackle for loss, led by Anenih (8) and Hall (8). They rank 9th, nationally, in tackles for loss with 63 for 269 yards. Against SMU, Houston had seven tackles for loss and three sacks.
Linebacker, Donovan Mutin, leads the team in tackles with 49. He also has five tackles for loss and two sacks. Cornerback, Damarion Williams, has 43 tackles. The defense has 19 passes broken up and 19 quarterback hurries. Marcus Jones, who ranks fourth on the team in tackles with 30, returned a kickoff for a touchdown with 13 seconds left in regulation to break a 37-37 tie against SMU for the win last week. Jones was named to several preseason all-American teams and is on the watch list for multiple awards, to include Chuck Bednarik Award, Jim Thorpe Award, and the Wuerffel Award.
Cornerback, Alex Hogan, has two interceptions this season, leading the team, which has seven total. Houston has the 17th best turnover margin in the country, gaining 14 turnovers, but losing just 8.
Houston ranks 4th in total defense (289 ypg) and 23rd scoring defense (20 ppg). They are 11th against the run, allowing just 98 yards per game.
Houston Offense
The Cougars’ 42nd ranked passing offense is led by quarterback, Clayton Tune. Tune has passed for 1,839 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Against SMU, Tune passed for 412 yards and four touchdowns. Nathaniel Dell was responsible for 165 of those yards and three touchdowns against the Mustangs. Dell has 675 yards receiving on the season and seven total touchdowns and is on the Paul Hornung Award watchlist. Christian Trahan and round out the top three with 301 and 256 receiving yards, respectively. Trahan has two touchdowns and Singleton has three. Singleton had 93 yards receiving against SMU.
Houston is a team that twice as much success passing the ball as running the ball, despite calling more run plays than pass plays (289-263). Their top running back is freshman, Alton McCaskill, who has rushed for 478 yards and nine touchdowns. Ta’Zhawn Henry, who was the top rusher against SMU (49 yards), ranks second on the team in season rushing totals (230 yards). Also getting involved in the run game is Mulbah Car (156 yards). Car is on the Doak Walker Award watch list. Houston’s rushing offense is ranked 103rd, averaging 121 yards per game.
The Cougars rank 19th in scoring offense and have scored over 40 points in five of their games (avg 37 ppg).
USF Defense
The Bulls defense is almost the opposite of the Houston defense. They rank 120th in total defense, allowing 465 yards per game and get very little penetration into opponent’s backfields. They are dead last in the nation (130th) in sacks (5). If the defense were one person, they would be in a tie for 52nd nationally in sacks. As an extension, they rate low in tackles for loss, as well, ranked 128th with just eight.
It’s not all bad for the Bulls’ defense, though. They feature a strong secondary, although dealing with injuries, that has eight interceptions thus far (34th), and is likely to add to that total on Saturday. Three Bulls have at least two picks on the season. Linebackers, Antonio Grier and Dwayne Boyles and cornerback Mekhi LaPointe each have two interceptions. Boyles and Grier are also the top tacklers on the team, with 58 and 53, respectively. Grier leads the team in sacks with two. Some of that secondary strength comes from safeties, Vincent Davis (46 tackles) and Matthew Hill (45 tackles). Defensive backs, Daquan Evans (38 tackles) and LaPointe (35 tackles) round out the top six in total tackles.
The USF defense has struggled stopping the running attack of teams featuring big running backs, where they often have a size disadvantage. They rank 120th against the rush, allowing nearly 208 yards per game. They also have trouble getting off the field on third down, allowing a conversion rate of nearly 40% (74th). Bulls’ opponents have scored once in the red zone, nearly 84% of the time. Perhaps the biggest issue the defense has is allowing big plays. To date, they have allowed 136 plays of ten yard or more gain (113th), 39 plays of 20 yards or more (82nd), and 20 plays gaining 30 yards or more (100th).
Expectations
Despite the disparity in where these two teams are in their seasons, one team with just one FBS win and the other with just one FBS loss, this game presents an interesting matchup. Houston’s strength on offense is the passing game and their not particularly good in the run game. USF’s strength on defense is against the pass and they are weak against the run. Expect these strengths to offset each other often, but for a few big plays to get through, as that is another weakness for the USF defense. On the other side of the ball, the Bulls have a very good receiving corps, but not the best quarterback situation, and Houston’s 18th ranked passing defense will make them pay for any mistakes. Expect USF to try and establish the run. Also, look for lots of option plays to deal with Houston’s super defensive line depth and ability to get penetration. This game will probably be closer than what the odds makers think, but it’s an uphill battle for the home team this week.
Summary
The Bulls are 13 point underdogs at home. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM eastern, with broadcast available via ESPNU.
