The Bulls of the University of South Florida will host the East Carolina University Pirates for their Homecoming game on Saturday. Both teams have struggled this season, due in some part to roster issues caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Neither team has beaten an FBS opponent this year.
This is the tenth all-time meeting between the programs, with the Bulls winning nine of those games. The only ECU win was a 28-17 Pirate win back in 2014. In their last game at ECU, the Bulls won in dominating fashion, 45-20.
The home town Bulls are 1-2 with big losses to #7 Notre Dame and #15 Cincinnati. Their one win came against The Citadel, 27-6.
ECU is 0-2, with losses against then #13 UCF and Georgia State. Their season opener with Marshall was postponed due to COVID-19 concerns. Two ECU coaches, Steve Shankweiler and Steve Ellis, will be familiar to Bulls’ fans as they coached at USF in the past.
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USF Offense
The Bulls have the second worst scoring offense in the entire country, averaging just 11 points per game. That’s due in large part to their inability to throw the football. Through three games, four quarterbacks have combined for 435 yards, or 145 yards per game. Nationally, that ranks them 68th of the 75 teams currently playing.
Of the four Bulls calling plays, sophomore quarterback, Jordon McCloud, is leading the pack. This is not entirely surprising since he played in 12 games last season, earning several starts after Blake Barnett’s season ended in injury. This season, McCloud has 269 yards passing with one touchdown and two interceptions.
Freshman quarterback, Katravis Marsh, started in their last game, playing most of the first half. He completed six passes on 13 attempts for just 39 yards and three interceptions. Cade Fortin had six attempts with two completions against Cincinnati. Transfer quarterback, Noah Johnson, did not play against the Bearcats, but has had some opportunities in the first two games, logging 85 passing yards and 61 rushing yards.
The receiving corps is currently led by senior receiver, DeVontres Dukes. Dukes has 100 yards receiving and one touchdown. The number two receiver is transfer tight end, Mitchell Brinkman, with 69 yards. Sophomore running back, Johnny Ford, is second on the team in catches, with seven.
Despite challenges in the passing game, the Bulls rank a respectable 36th in rushing, averaging 164 yards per game. In addition to his receiving duties, Ford is leading the pack on the ground with 153 yards and a touchdown. He’s roughly splitting carries with Kelley Joiner, who has120 yards rushing and a score of his own. Converted defensive back, Leonard Parker, seven carries for 51 yards against Cincinnati. The coaches like Parker’s size and he is expected to get a lot more opportunities, going forward.
ECU Defense
The Pirates, who are working with their fourth defensive coordinator in four years, like to blitz on defense. However, they are not achieving the results one would expect from a blitz-heavy strategy. They rank 73rd in total defense, have zero sacks, and just six tackles for loss. This risk-heavy approach gave up 408 passing yards and four touchdowns to UCF. They rank dead last in scoring offense (75th), allowing 50 points per game.
The Pirates are led in tackles by linebackers, Jireh Wilson and Xavier Smith, with 16 apiece. Smith is 5th, nationally, in fumbles recovered and Wilson is 15th in passes defended. Wilson also leads the team in passes defended, with 2.5.
ECU Offense
Junior quarterback, Holton Ahlers is the leader of the offense with 451 passing yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions. Three of Ahlers’ picks came against Georgia State. Ahlers is on watch lists the Manning Award and the Wuerffel Trophy.
The Pirates have two receivers with over 100 yards rushing in Tyler Snead (113) and Blake Proehl (102). Snead also has a touchdown.
ECU ranks 46th in rushing defense, averaging 147 yards per game. Four different backs have double-digit carries for the Pirates, led by Keaton Mitchell and Chase Hayden, with 66 and 62 yards, respectively. Rahjai Harris rounds out the top three running backs with 43 yards.
USF Defense
The Bulls rank 19th, nationally, in total defense, allowing 349 total yards per game. Currently, they are first in the country in passing defense, allowing just 125 passing yards through three games. One might think that they’re giving up a lot on the ground to compensate, but that’s not entirely true. They rank 36th in rushing defense, allowing 163 yards per game.
Linebacker, Antonio Grier, and defensive back, Nick Roberts, lead the team with 23 tackles teach. Close by in third place is defensive back, Vincent Davis. Grier also leads the team with 2 sacks and two tackles for loss. Four different Bulls have an interception, this season.
Expectations
Expect USF to finally pick and stick with a quarterback, at least until he gives them a reason to make a change. That quarterback should have adequate success against the ECU defense and should be able to score a few times. Expect Ahlers to have success moving the ball around, but to also cough up some turnovers. With the Bulls defense fairly well in their last game, the improved offense should be enough to get them over the top and easily cover the point spread.
Summary
The Bulls are 5.5 point favorites at home. ESPN’s Football Power Index computers give them just a 56% chance of winning. Kickoff is set for 7 PM EDT, with broadcast available on ESPN+.
