Who: Marshall Thundering Herd vs. USF Bulls
What: FBS football bowl game
When: Thursday, December 20th, 2018
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
The University of South Florida Bulls will meet the Marshall University Thundering Herd at Raymond James Stadium for the 2018 Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl on Thursday, December 20th. This will be the first Gasparilla Bowl played in Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium and it will be the first all-time matchup between these two programs.
Conference USA’s Marshall finished the season second in the East division of the conference with an 8-4 (6-2) record. USF, with their 7-5 (3-5) record represent the American Athletic Conference. The Thundering Herd finished the season winning three of their final games while the Bulls finished 0-5 after beginning the season a promising 7-0.
USF Offense
After finishing the 2017 season ranked in the top ten in rushing offense and scoring offense, the Bulls’ offense took a step backwards in 2018. They completed the season ranked 36th in rushing offense, 64th in scoring offense, and 56th in passing offense. Worst of all, their offensive efficiency dropped significantly, where they ranked 64th in scoring offense per game.
A shoulder injury limited starting quarterback, Blake Barnett two just two starts in the final five losses. Barnett is unlikely to play in the bowl game. In his relief, Sophomore quarterback, Chris Oladokun, and junior, Brett Kean, alternated, with Oladokun getting the two starts. Neither put up impressive numbers, with Oladokun passing for 165 yards and two touchdowns on 22 attempts against Cincinnati and 77 yards on 12 attempts with one touchdown and one interception against UCF. Kean passed for just 67 yards on ten attempts against the Bearcats with one touchdown and just 36 yards on 17 attempts against the Knights. Both backups have some mobility, but neither shined in the running game. Oladokun had 25 runs for 19 yards and Kean finished the season with negative net rushing yards.
Despite the disappointing season totals, the running game is still an area of strength for the Bulls. Junior running back, Jordan Cronkrite, finished the season with 1,095 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging just under 100 yards per game. Freshman, Johnny Ford, who missed two games and played sparingly in two others, still finished the season with more than 700 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Cronkrite finished the season ranked 23rd, nationally, for yards per game (99) and 33rd in total yards (1,095). Ford ranked 20th in the country for average yards per carry (7.09).
The loss of Barnett certainly affected the passing game in a negative way. Team leading receiver, Tyre McCants, finished with 613 yards on the season, but had just seven catches in the final three games. Speedy Randall St. Felix, who missed games against Houston and Tulane due to injury, had just three catches in the final three games. He finished the season averaging 51 receiving yards per game. Rounding out the top three is tight end, Mitchell Wilcox, who spent the losing stretch dealing with his own injuries. He finished the season with 506 yards despite missing a game and not logging catches against Temple or East Carolina.
Marshall Defense
The Thundering Herd boast the 30th best scoring defense in the nation, holding opponents to just 22 points per game. They rank 10th against the run (105 YPG) and 68th against the pass (232 YPG).
Linebackers, Chase Hannock and Malik Grant lead the team in tackles with 98 and 89, respectively. Where the Marshall defense shines is in the backfield, where they rank 10th in the nation for sacks with 38. Defensive linemen, Ty Tyler, leads the team with eight sacks. Fellow lineman, Channing Hames has 5.5. Tyler ranks 35th, nationally, for total sacks. Hames and Tyler also lead the team in tackles for loss, 10.5 and 9, respectively.
In their last game, a 41-20 loss to 6-6 Virginia Tech, Marshall gave up 312 passing yards and four touchdowns. They held the Hokies to just 142 rushing yards and one touchdown.
Marshall Offense
Marshall ranks just 76th in scoring office, putting up just over 27 points per game. They’re 85th in rushing (156 YPG) and 66th passing offense (229 YPG).
The unit is led by freshman quarterback and Conference USA Co-Freshman of the Year, Isaiah Green. Green missed three games due to injury, but still finished the season with 2,238 passing yards and 15 touchdowns.
Senior wide receiver, Tyre Brady, has been the number one target for Green, piling up 914 yards and nine receiving touchdowns. It’s a bit of a drop-off to number two receiver, where Obi Obialo has just over half as many yards (473) and four touchdowns. Together, they combined for six catches and just 33 yards against Virginia Tech.
The Thundering Herd began the season with strong running back performances from Tyler King, who amassed 655 yards in just seven games. He has not played in the past five games, however, due to a leg injury. In his absence, Brenden Knox has stepped up, rushing for 485 yards in the final four games of the season, including a 204 yard, two touchdown performance against the Hokies.
USF Defense
The Bulls have struggled on defense this season. They rank 104th in total defense (442 YPG), 91st in scoring defense (32 PPG), and 122nd against the run (245 YPG). The only area the USF defense did not finish in the lower half of all teams was passing defense, where they ranked a respectable 35th, allowing just 197 passing yards per game. It should be noted, however, that the Bulls had one of the lowest passing attempts numbers in the country. Only 23 out of 130 teams had less passes attempted against them. This fact and the the low ranking rushing defense suggest that opponents simply chose to run more against USF. Only two teams in all of the FBS defended less rushing attempts (Louisiana-Lafayette and New Mexico State).
Leading the defense in tackles is senior linebacker, Khalid McGee. His 104 total tackles ties him for 56th in the nation, individually. Defensive back, Ronnie Hoggins, and linebacker, Greg Reaves, are second and third with 76 and 75 tackles, respectively. Freshman defensive back, Nick Roberts, was fourth on the list with 65 tackles, but led the team with three interceptions.
Josh Black leads the team in sacks (5) and tackles for loss (10). Linemen, Juwuan Brown and Kirk Livingston each had four sacks.
Expectations
For the hometown Bulls, the game has the feel of a letdown after a season that began so promising. Playing a bowl game before Christmas on their home field will probably take some of the post season excitement out of the game for them. Marshall, on the other hand, will show up ready to play. The Thundering Herd play in a less respected conference than the Bulls do, and victory over USF is as big as the trophy from the game. Marshall has won their last six straight bowl games and are 11-1 over their past 12.
Look for that excitement differential early in the game with some big play touchdowns by Marshall. They will definitely prefer to run the ball against the Bulls, as others have with success, but they will test the secondary early in the game to try and build up an early lead. USF may have less enthusiasm about playing Marshall in a bowl game at home, but this is their home and they will defend it. Expect the seniors, who are especially disappointed about the way their collegiate careers ended, to show up energized. The rushing defense has struggled, but the Bulls will have video on Knox and will find ways to trip up the freshman and contain the running game. Marshall’s defense has been good stopping the run, but they gave up more than 100 yards on the ground seven times this season, allowing FIU to break 200. None of those teams had Cronrite and Ford. Oladokun probably gets the start and establishes himself as the number two quarterback in a close, but comfortable win.
Summary
The Bulls are 2.5 point underdogs at home, but ESPN’s FPI predictor gives USF a 51.1% chance of winning. ESPN will broadcast the game, nationally. Kickoff is at 8:00 PM, EST.