It’s Homecoming Week for the University of South Florida Bulls, who are celebrating the 25th anniversary of their football program. The #19/#20 University of Houston Cougars will be in town for the football festivities, looking to build on their 5-2 all-time lead in the series, in which they have not lost to the Bulls since joining the American Athletic Conference. The Cougars have just one loss, the season opener to Texas Tech, and are a perfect 5-0 in conference play. The 2-6 (1-3) Bulls, still in rebuilding mode, are looking for an upset to turn their season around. Houston has a very good passing offense and an excellent defense that shows little weakness. USF has struggled in many aspects of the game, this season, and this week’s opponent will be a tough one to beat. It can be done, however, and USF has some reason to hope they can be the ones to do it. Here’s how it might go down.

1. Contain the pass. Houston quarterback, Clayton Tune, passed for more than 400 yards in their upset win over SMU last week. And, he’s getting close to the 2,000 mark, with more than 1,800 passing yards this season. He has 16 touchdowns, but also has thrown six interceptions. This might be the single best chance USF has to win the game. Last year, Tune passed for a season low of 165 yards against the Bulls, and this year’s secondary is arguably better than last. They are dealing with some injuries, but they still have the tools to pick off some passes and keep Tune from finding a rhythm.

2. Take the points. There are lots of games this season where this column advised the Bulls to be aggressive and do what they could to score touchdowns. This is not the advice this week. The strength on strength matchup of Houston’s strong passing game and USF’s good passing defense could make this a low scoring game. In low scoring games, field goals might be enough to win. Houston’s defense may be the best this team will face all season and they will not give up many points to the Bulls. They need to take what they can and hope the defense can hold.

3. Run the ball. This one may seem like a head scratcher because the Cougars have the 11 ranked rushing defense in the country. However, the reason that nobody runs much against them is because they cannot keep up with that high powered passing offense. Opponents fall behind and need to pass to try and catch up. In their only loss of the season, Houston gave up 145 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Texas Tech. Three touchdowns may well be enough to win this game if the Bulls can keep Tune from having a good game. Also, successful run plays will force Houston to blitz less, which will help protect the quarterback.

4. Protect the quarterback. Houston is a sack producing machine. They rank 4th in the nation in sacks, taking down quarterbacks 31 times in in just eight games. The worst thing for opposing offenses is that it isn’t just one or two guys. Thirteen Cougars have at least one sack, six have more than three. Their top seven sack leaders are defensive linemen, as are nine of the 13. That shows incredible depth on the line, which means they will be bringing fresh heat all game. The Bulls coaching staff needs to get creative with the playbook and the offensive line needs to stand up. The USF offensive line has improved a good deal since last season, but they haven’t faced a challenge like this one in a while.

5. Get off the field on defense. The Bulls have struggled to stop third and fourth down conversions this season. There are various reasons that include rushing just three linemen and playing way off the line of scrimmage, even in third and short situations. The reasons for these strategies are unknown outside the coaching staff, but they need to do something different this week. Houston does not have a particularly strong running game, but if the down is third and three and USF’s linebackers are five yards off the line, the don’t need to have one. Currently, USF is allowing third downs to convert at a 40% rate. Cut that by a third and this game is winnable. And, if that seems unreasonable, note that Houston has a 25% opponent conversion rate on third down.