It’s a Thursday edition of the Friday Five because the University of South Florida Bulls are playing a primetime game on Friday night against the #2 ranked University of Cincinnati Bearcats. The Bearcats are an undefeated 9-2 (5-0) and have one of the best offenses and defenses in the country. The 2-7 (1-4) Bulls are at least 23 point underdogs at press time. This seems like an impossible game for the home team, but there’s a reason they play the game. This week, that reason is because USF has an opportunity of a historic upset. Here’s how they do it:
1. Run the ball. After Timmy McClain’s career game last week against Houston, the coaching staff will be tempted to throw the ball all over the place. This is not the week to do this. Cincinnati is 3rd in the nation against the pass and they have the second best interception total (14). Conversely, they are 76th against the run, allowing 157 yards per game. USF’s one, two, three punch of Jaren Mangham, Kelley Joiner, and Brian Battie are just the trick for Cincinnati’s one team weakness. Pound the ball with Mangham and then speed it through with the other two.
2. Win the turnover battle. In six of their nine wins, the Bearcats have won the turnover battle. Two times they lost the turnover battle, once against Miami of Ohio and the other time was last week against Tulsa, a team that Cincinnati struggled to get past. In the games they won the turnover battle, they had an average of +2.66. If McClain can keep the passes out of Bearcats’ gloves and the USF defense can steal two or three passes from Desmond Ridder, the tables turn quickly in this game. With the mismatches that will exist on the field, this is exactly the kind of thing that will factor into a USF upset.
3. Contain Ridder. Ridder is a legitimate threat on the ground and through the air. However, if the Bulls do well on #3, the pass will be a threat Cincinnati will try to avoid, encouraging Ridder to run. And, if USF isn’t ready, he will run all over their defense, and possibly without getting touched. The coaching staff must figure out a way to keep eyes on Ridder at all times to keep him from exploiting their weak run defense.
4. Be aggressive. Last week, this column advised to take all scoring opportunities, meaning to take field goals when available. That is not the advice this week. Cincinnati, if they win, will not win by a few points. They are favored by more than three touchdowns. This means USF will likely need one of their highest scoring games of the season to pull out the upset. USF will need to play like they have nothing to lose, because, at this point, they have nothing to lose.
5. Get in the backfield. USF ranks dead last, 129th, in sacks. Cincinnati ranks 6th in the nation in tackles for loss allowed. The Bulls rank 125th in the nation in tackles for loss. USF needs to blitz often and never rush just three linemen. When they do, they have success. But, as their ranking suggests, they don’t often try. This is a perfect opportunity, in a game nobody expects them to win at the end of a season with not many wins and against a team that is susceptible for tackles behind the line of scrimmage. Just like with key 4, there’s nothing to lose, here, and everything to win. Get in the backfield, shake up the offense, and win the game.
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