This week BullsInsider.com goes behind enemy lines with Brandon Helwig, publisher of UCFSports.com. Brandon answers five questions about today’s South Florida at UCF game.
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1. How has the 2021 season and the new era under Gus Malzahn been viewed by the UCF fan base?
There are two factions: One group that understands a plethora of serious injuries to multiple key players (starting QB, RB, WR, DT, etc.) has dampened expectations and recognizes Malzahn's staff has made the most of the hand they were dealt (perhaps the Navy game notwithstanding). And there's another group that demands perfection, huge numbers on offense and scoring lots of points all the time and wants to ignore the injury element, so they complain and wonder what things might be like if UCF hired a flashier offensive coach, such as Ole Miss OC Jeff Lebby.
I think the rational fans are mostly satisfied with the results, understanding this year would have ups and downs due to the injuries, most notably the loss of quarterback Dillon Gabriel and having to go to a true freshman in Mikey Keene. However, that friendly view will change in a hurry if UCF loses to South Florida.
2. What are the differences in terms of the offense this year vs last year for the Knights?
The Josh Heupel offense played fast with the intent of tiring defenses (including sometimes their own) but it did rack up yards and points, especially against outmanned competition. The Boise State and Louisville games were probably the blueprint of what a true Gus Malzahn would look like at UCF - that was the last time all the key players on offense were healthy. UCF still played with some tempo at times, though not as fast as Heupel. It was a balanced attack, leaning heavily on bruising RB Isaiah Bowser but still getting the ball out to playmakers like Ryan O'Keefe and Jaylon Robinson. The offense under Mikey Keene has been a bit different, limiting options to what he can effectively execute. That means mostly shorter passes as he doesn't have the deep ball accuracy as a Dillon Gabriel, though he's gotten a little better lately. Keene had been shy to tuck it and run, but started to effectively do that in the last game.
3. Defensively how has the team changed and who are some key guys to watch on that side of the ball?
Like the offense, the defense has had their share of injuries including the loss of star DT Kalia Davis, who tore his ACL midway through the season. Other starters have been out for various lengths of time. Against lesser competition, the defense has looked great (ECU, Memphis, Temple, Tulane and UConn games). But the wheels completely fell off at SMU as the Mustangs pretty much did anything they wanted. Tackling was poor after it looked much improved in previous games. Still, there is a sense the scheme (and effort) is ahead of last year's production, and long term could be a real strength as the talent improves. Key players to watch include DE Big Kat Bryant, an Auburn transfer who has a tremendous motor and impacts many plays even if he doesn't get a sack or tackle, nickel Justin Hodges continues to develop and is coming off perhaps his best game vs. UConn. Linebacker is a weakness in terms of depth and the best player at that position, Tatum Bethune, has been a little banged up so that's something to keep an eye on.
4. Offensively who are the key guys to watch on Saturday?
QB Mikey Keene continues to make steady improvement. He's cut back on the early interceptions that plagued him and is just now starting to realize when it's prudent to keep the ball and run it. How will he perform in a rivalry game? RB Isaiah Bowser has been injury prone all year and was sat in the last game as he wasn't 100 percent. Does he play and if he does, how productive will he be? To be honest, we've yet to see the early-season Bowser post-injury. Ryan O'Keefe has been the playmaker at wide receiver, exhibiting his speed and also a knack for gadgetry. The former high school quarterback has thrown for two touchdown passes on trick plays this year.
5. How do you see this playing out and a score prediction would be great?
Given the injuries and inexperience at some positions, it's hard to know what to predict week to week. The offense looked like 2017 the way they were able to score at Temple, then they struggled mightily the next week against Tulane and needed a late touchdown just to win the game. And defensively, the team looked great for most of October and early November (Cincinnati game the exception) and while you knew SMU would pose a big challenge, they were mostly inept in that performance. Even with UCF issues, on paper, UCF should still be the heavy favorite but you know South Florida will be fired up for this one. Jeff Scott will bring everything out of the arsenal to try and win this game as beating UCF would be a huge momentum deal for him heading into the offseason. Being a rivalry game, I think it'll be closer than some people think. I'll go UCF 35, South Florida 28.
