It’s a big game week for the University of South Florida Bulls, who will host #2 Cincinnati for a primetime, Friday night matchup in Tampa. On paper, this looks like a matchup between one of the best teams in the country and one of the worst. Some things, however, don’t show up on paper, like how much a team believes in themselves and the small improvements from game to game that don’t show up on the stats sheet. Still, Cincinnati is one of the best teams in the country and USF will have their work cut out for them as 23 point underdogs. Bulls Insider went Behind Enemy Lines with Bearcat Report’s Jason Stamm to learn more about USF’s next opponent.
BI: Cincinnati has been at the top of the college football rankings for much of this season, yet the College Football Playoff has made an apparent effort to keep them out of playoff contention. What do you think the reason is for this apparent bias? Is this an anti-AAC attitude or is it targeted at Cincinnati? If this Cincinnati team were already in the Big 12, would this bias still exist? This situation seems very much like the UCF season when they became “National Champions” despite not being allowed to compete in the so-called playoff.
JS: To me, it's obvious and not a surprise. The committee doesn't think any Group of 5 team is good enough. There's just a perception that regardless, those teams are inferior. It's also a matter of the haves and have nots. The haves (power five) have all the money and control who gets a piece of it. And plain and simple, like most corporations, they don't want to share. Now, what makes Cincinnati different is that it's already been accepted, to the Big 12. So if any team from a non-power five conference is ever gonna crack the CFP and the current setup, this is it. Yes, there will be some sharing for what's not a current power five program, but that's very short-term. And I do believe that if the Bearcats were in the Big 12 already there would be no discussion, that they'd already be in the top four. When you see first-hand the fight to earn respect, it's easier to see why UCF did what it did to declare itself national champions. It was basically the Knights' way of saying F*** it, you won't let us in even though we've done everything asked, so we'll just give ourselves a championship, as much as that was mocked.
BI: Speaking of the Big 12 situation, what is the feeling like amongst the fans, staff, and players about moving to the Big 12? Do folks believe it will be a better conference when the changes take place than what the American was becoming? Cincinnati and USF have played football together in multiple conferences and have one of the longest running series in the past two decades, spanning 18 games. Do these kinds of long term relationships affect those in the Cincinnati realm and do you think there is a good possibility they get together in a conference again, in the future?
JS: There is a ton of relief and just anxiousness. As I wrote in a column last week, that move can't come soon enough, as we also mentioned in the above question. The perception is there nationally that the Big 12 is legit, which in itself opens up so many more doors than what the American can offer. The AAC is a great conference, but try as it might, even with the power six marketing, the perception just won't be there. USF is a very attractive program, being in a fertile recruiting area, a metro area like Tampa and playing in an NFL stadium. I'll never rule anything out (did anyone think teams would go BACK to the Sun Belt?), so it certainly could happen that USF could get in the same conference again as UC. But I don't think that will happen in the immediate future. With the move, I think the Bearcats' rival will be West Virginia, based on proximity and on the basketball side, former coach Bob Huggins being there.
BI: The Bearcats rank 13th in scoring offense with a solid passing game with Desmond Ridder and a great ground game with Jerome Ford and others. Where’s the weakness in that offense, if any? What other names can fans expect to hear called during the game?
JS: The weakness is the offensive line or really, inconsistency. The line has its moments where it provides good protection and Ridder has all day to complete a throw. Then there are times when Ridder just can't get time to think. It's not just the offensive line, though. Josh Whyle, for example, has been talked about as a possible mid-round NFL Draft pick. He looked great against Navy and Tulane, then had a horrible showing against Tulsa. It really showed in his grade from Pro Football Focus. As a team, Cincinnati has been slow to get going in all but a couple of games this season. I'm not sure what it is, but probably mental. The Bearcats just have to find their rhythm, which sometimes can take some time. Ford getting banged up with a sore left leg/ankle against Tulsa didn't help. Coach Luke Fickell didn't tip his hand to Ford's availability at USF. But on a short week, I wouldn't expect him to get the load he has. Watch for Charles McClelland and Ryan Montgomery to also figure in to the backfield.
BI: What would an upset to USF mean to the Cincinnati season? Do you see an upset as being a possibility, and if so, what would have to happen for USF to get the win?
JS: An upset would totally derail Cincinnati's season. You're talking about trying to get into the College Football Playoff. There really is no margin for error for the Bearcats. They need to win and win convincingly to show that they're better than the last three closer games against inferior opponents. I mean, playing on the road, it's certainly possible for USF to spring an upset. I don't see it as a very likely possibility, but I'm not ruling it out. For USF to win, it needs to rattle Ridder and force him in to bad mistakes. The offense also needs to mix in some play action and get going early. That seems to be when teams have a chance, very early and against Navy and Tulsa, late in the game. But I think the Bulls really have to play pretty flawless to win a game like this.
BI: The Bearcats look tough on defense, allowing less than fifteen points per game. Last week, a 3-6 Tulsa team scored more than that average and gave Cincinnati a tougher fight than most would have expected from the #2 team in the nation. 1-6 Navy also outscored that average and only lost by a touchdown to the Bearcats in the game before last. What do you attribute the recent challenges from what would seem to be very outmatched teams? Does this say something about where Cincinnati is at this point of the season or are their opponents just having great games? Have the Bearcats been playing deep into their roster to rest guys? Are there significant injuries that explain this late season struggle?
JS: Like I said on a radio show the other day, I think Cincinnati is just in a funk right now, for whatever reason. And I think most of it is mental, because we've seen how good the Bearcats are, especially anyone who watched the game at Notre Dame. Yes, every opponent will get up and play their best against a team like UC, so that's part of it. But it's just a lack of execution in key spots. The Bearcats have done a lot to themselves. It's not a super deep team. UC has guys, but they're another year away from really contributing. Again, Ford is banged up, which will be something to watch and that did stall the offense a bit against Tulsa. But that's not the only reason. Tulsa is still a decent team and played very well on Saturday. I thought UC would turn things back around Saturday, so I'll try it again and say this is the game the Bearcats get back on track with a more cushiony win, something like 38-17.
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