Friday Five, Tuesday edition: ECU Week

The University of South Florida Bulls head to Greenville, NC to visit the East Carolina University Pirates for a primetime matchup on Thursday night. The 3-3 Pirates suffered back-to-back heartbreaker losses to Houston (OT) and UCF (go ahead score with 23 seconds in game) and will be looking for someone to pay for their misfortune. The 2-5 Bulls have their first FBS win in two years, taking down Temple 34-14. The Bulls have never lost in Greenville (5-0), but ECU is favored by nearly ten points. This game won’t be a sure win, but there surely is a way to win. They will need to do these things:

1. Take away the passing game. In their last matchup, Holton Ahlers passed for 222 yards and three touchdowns on the way to an easy win over the Bulls. This year, Ahlers ranks 27th in the nation with 1,763 passing yards, ten touchdowns, and six interceptions. Ahlers has three touchdowns in two of their three wins this year. Keep him below three and the odds of a USF upset increase substantially.

2. Don’t throw picks. ECU has five interceptions in two of their three wins and has lost the turnover battle in three of their four losses. If USF’s quarterbacks can keep the ball out of Pirates’ hands, they’ll be that much closer to winning the game.

3. Stop the run. The Pirates have a very good one-two punch at running back that could spell doom for the Bulls defense. Keaton Mitchell ranks 25th in the nation with 677 yards and four touchdowns. Fellow freshman, Rahjai Harris, has 325 yards and a pair of scores. Harris is a big bruiser at 224 pounds, exactly the type of runner the USF defense has struggled with. The duo racked up 310 rushing yards in their win over Tulane. ECU prefers to throw the ball, but if USF doesn’t look strong against the run, they have the tools to pound away at the defense until it breaks. Keeping that from happening is critical.

4. Air it out. There’s going to be a strong temptation for USF to try follow up their record setting run performance with more of the same, and they certainly should give that a shot. However, ECU is ranked 67th vs. the run, but only 119th against the pass, allowing nearly 280 rushing yards per game.

5. Get some penetration. USF ranks dead last in the nation, 130th in total sacks (4). The four teams above them tied for 126th all have two more sacks the Bulls. This would be a good game to improve those numbers. The Pirates have allowed 25 sacks this season (119th). Getting to the quarterback will help disrupt his game, increasing the odds for turnovers and loss of downs.