What to Watch For: USF vs UCF
Still looking for its first American Athletic Conference win of the season South Florida hosts I-4 rival UCF, who will be without an injured Tacko Fall, tonight at the Sun Dome. Both teams are coming off of losses – the Bulls were blown out at ECU 90-52 Wednesday while UCF lost at home to Cincinnati 49-38 on Wednesday.
The Bulls, who have failed to score at least 60 points since January 3, will try to end two losing streaks on one night. USF has lost six AAC games in a row and has lost four in a row to UCF.
RunningTheBulls.com has your quick facts and what to watch for against UCF:
Quick Facts
Matchup: UCF (12-6, 3-3) at USF (7-12, 0-6)
Date: Saturday, Jan. 20
Time: 6 p.m. EST
Location: Tampa, Florida | Sun Dome
Watch: ESPNU (Jay Alter, Mark Wise)
Radio: AM 820 | USF Bulls Unlimited (Jim Lighthall, Neil Solondz)
History: Saturday will be the 36th meeting between the two programs. The Bulls have a 22-13 advantage in the series but have not defeated the Knights since March 3, 2015.
The Opponent: Coming off of its best season in a decade, UCF added five players to its roster. The Knights went 9-3 during the no-conference portion of the schedule including a win at then No. 24 Alabama and a win over Nebraska. UCF has conference wins over ECU, Memphis and Temple.
The Knights’ defense has been suffocating this season. They are second in the AAC in scoring defense at just 58.5 points per game. Since losing to West Virginia, on November 24, the Knights haven’t allowed an opponent to reach 65 points in any of their last 13 games. In conference games, the Knights are holding their opponents to less than 50 points per game.
In scouting UCF we noticed that they alternate between man, 2-3 and 1-3-1, but they are in man defense the majority of the time. UCF’s man defense is limiting opponents to just 34.1 percent field goal shooting. UCF will use a soft contain press after makes. They are very good at grinding you out defensively.
The Knights guard the ball well, switch on screens and do a very good job contesting shots. They make you shoot over a hand. UCF does not extend its defense very far – yet they have the third best three-point field goal percent defense in the conference. Without Fall in the lineup the Knights will use 6-foot-9 Chad Brown at center and back him up with seldom used 6-foot-11, 235-pound Rokas Ulvydas. Senior A.J. Davis is a very versatile defensive player who can guard one through five if necessary.
. Senior A.J. Davis is a very versatile defensive player who can guard one through five if necessary.
Preseason first team all-conference point guard B.J. Taylor returned to action Wednesday against Cincinnati. Taylor had been out 16 games since breaking a bone in his foot in their season opener. A healthy Taylor changes their offense. Taylor is simply one of the best point guards in the American, he runs their offense and can make shots. Taylor averaged 17.4 points and 3.5 assists per game last season.
Freshman Cesar DeJesus likes to dribble penetrate but he seldom goes to the rim if you make him go to his left, where he is equally likely to pull up for a jumper, attempt a floater or turn it over/get fouled. If he goes to his right, his goal is getting to the rim. Dayon Griffin can get hot from deep and Terrell Allen is a combo guard who is good in P&R situations. Brown prefers to set up on the left block where his go-to move is a reverse pivot then get into the lane for a jump hook. If he doesn’t reverse pivot he’ll turn left to key his move into the lane for a jump hook. He will occasionally shoot a jumper after a reverse pivot but not often. He is less effective when he drop steps, on either block, or shoots a jumper.
Outlook: USF must come out with the type of energy, focus and determination they had at the beginning of the previous home game against Houston. Limit turnovers, recognize the UCF defense early and adjust as necessary.
Not having Fall to protect the rim alters things a bit for the Knights. UCF is still a solid defensive team without Fall, but an inside deterrent has been removed. Still we expect a low scoring slow paced game. For most of the season UCF liked to walk it up, that may change some with Taylor back in the lineup, but we’ll have to see come game time.
Prediction: UCF 63 UCF 57