What to watch for: USF vs. New Mexico State
Still in the winner’s bracket at the 2019 Cayman Classic after a comeback victory over Loyola-Chicago, the USF men’s basketball team takes on New Mexico State today with the winner advancing to the Cayman Islands Classic championship game.
The Bulls outscored the Ramblers 21-7 during the final 10:28 of the game – with the Ramblers scoring those seven points from the free throw line – to complete a 66-55 come from behind win.
New Mexico State survived an overtime scare from Colorado State when Jabari Ride went into beast mode and scored 12 of his game-high 21 points in the extra session to propel his team to a 78-70 win.
RunningTheBulls.com has your quick facts and what to watch for against New Mexico State:
Quick Facts
Matchup: New Mexico State (3-3) vs. USF (3-2)
Date: Tuesday, Nov. 26
Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
Location: Georgetown, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands | John Gray Gymnasium
Watch: FLOHOOPS
Radio: Bulls Unlimited
History: This is the first ever meeting between the two programs.
The Opponent: New Mexico State returns four starters from last season’s team that went 30-5, won the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) title and earned a No. 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament where they lost to Auburn by one point. Head coach Chris Jans used a 14-man rotation las season but injuries to starting point guard AJ Harris (fractured finger) and Clayton Henry (torn thumb ligament) have tightened New Mexico State’s bench to essentially three players: sophomore guard Rice, senior forward Johnny McCants and East Carolina transfer Shawn Williams — the latter of whom earned immediate eligibility. Williams was the 2017-18 American Athletic Conference Rookie of the Year.
In addition to the aforementioned injuries, senior combo guard Terrell Brown is dealing with a strained groin muscle which has bothered him all season. Brown went 0-6 from the field yesterday and did not score.
New Mexico State will use a myriad of defenses throughout the game but they play almost exclusively man defense. The Aggies will use an aggressive, sideline trap to force turnovers. Watch for New Mexico State to double-down on entry passes into the low post while the perimeter defenders rotate to cover the gaps. USF big men need to anticipate that and be ready to pass out of the double-team.
The Aggies backcourt is small and they will have their hands full trying to keep David Collins and Laquincy Rideau out of the paint. Both starting guards are shorter than 6-foot-2 and weigh 170-pounds. Brown checks in at 6-foot-4, 180-pounds. So, watch for them to trap and try to turn over Rideau and Collins for transition baskets.
Speaking of turnovers, neither of these two teams are very good at taking care of the ball. USF turns the ball over 25.6 times per 100 possessions and New Mexico State is almost as bad at 22.8 times per 100 possessions according to Kenpom.com.
Onetime USF target Ivan Aurrecoechea (pronounced EE-von ah-oh-ray-coe-uh-chay-ah) is crafty inside and is considered one of the best in the nation at carving out real estate around the basket. He struggled with foul trouble yesterday and was limited to 19-minutes of playing time. When he was on the court Aurrecoechea took just three shots and grabbed zero rebounds. Barring foul trouble on Tuesday, he is unlikely to duplicate those numbers against the Bulls.
Prediction
USF 63 New Mexico State 65
To win USF needs to limit turnovers while turning New Mexico State’s turnovers into points. The Aggies have exactly twice as many OREB as their opponents. The Bulls will need to have at least five more OREB than the Aggies and score at least one point per OREB.